Biblical Recorder - Distribution through WMU

16. November 2009 by Chris Harker, Winterville, N.C.

The report on the Baptist State Convention (BSC) web site from the Executive Committee meeting Nov. 9 regarding distribution of materials to churches through Woman’s Missionary Union failed to provide pertinent information concerning the survey results conducted by the BSC.

Critical pieces of information were not included. Exactly how many of the BSC’s 4,200 churches did the BSC survey?

The design flaw of this survey was the option of non-response for any church that wanted WMU-NC to continue providing missions promotional materials. These non-responses serve as a positive indicator of an ongoing relationship between the WMU-NC and the churches, yet they were unreported.

The report given by Brian Davis, executive leader for administration and Convention relations, stated that 25 percent of the responders did not wish to receive missions materials from WMU-NC.

That is 25 percent of how many churches? Or better stated 75 percent of responding churches want WMU-NC to continue to promote missions in their churches.

Typically only 20 percent of mail-directed surveys respond, yielding 800 total responses.

If 75 percent of them wanted WMU-NC to serve them that would equate to 600 churches (75 percent of 800).

This amount is a partial answer.

It does not account for the 80 percent of NC Baptist churches who through default and non-response want WMU-NC as their missions distributor.

Only 200 churches (out of a possible 4,000) wish to receive mission materials through other avenues, a mere five percent of North Carolina Baptist churches. The significant statistic is that 95 percent (3,800 of 4,000) of the churches desire for WMU-NC to continue to distribute missions promotional materials to them.

That statistic is worth reporting.

Chris Harker
Winterville

(EDITOR’S NOTE — According to Davis’ report at the Executive Committee all BSC churches were contacted. See Executive Committee story. Eight hundred churches responded, a large enough sampling to imply that the response is representative, and that 75 percent of churches wish to continue to receive their materials from WMU-NC.)

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anonymous

It seems many are being tempted to draw conclusions from the data of the churches’ responses that cannot be drawn logically from it. I’d like to make two points in regards to this issue: 1) the responses collected by the BSC are not representative, they are actual, and 2) the responses do not in any way reflect public opinion of WMU NC.

Point 1 - the responses collected by the BSC are not representative, they are actual

The question was whether the churches desired to continue receiving offering materials from WMU NC or not. The churches who received the letters had three options:
1) respond NO by postcard or web form
2) respond YES by postcard or web form
3) respond YES by not responding

Therefore, 100% of the churches responded. Those who did not respond actively responded passively: they responded YES. They were told if they did not respond, then they would continue receiving materials from WMU NC. The only churches that really needed to respond were those who did not wish to receive it from WMU NC.

Since ALL the churches were contacted (not a sample), the response is not representative, it is actual. Using approximate numbers, 80% responded YES passively, since their non-response was to be understood as a YES; 15% responded YES actively; 5% responded NO. The fact of the matter is that only 5% of churches responded NO, so 95% responded YES, whether actively or passively.

Point 2 - the responses do not in any way reflect public opinion of WMU NC

By definition, this was not a survey, so public opinion cannot be assessed by means of it. Surveys poll a random sample of a population to assess public opinion, and as has already been stated, ALL of the churches were contacted, not a sample. Further, the responses were not designed to assess public opinion. If this were intended to be a survey of public opinion about WMU NC or any other entity, which I am confident it was not, the method was so incredibly flawed as to invalidate any conclusions which could be drawn from the data collected.

1) For accurate conclusions to be drawn from surveys, the survey instrument must be designed so that there can only be one explanation implied for a given response or an explicit explanation must be solicited. If we wanted to survey public opinion, we would have to ask them WHY they answered the way they did or ask the question in such a way that there is only one explanation for the response, but that is not what was done. This was a yes or no question regarding what course of action should be taken: should we have WMU NC send you offering materials or not? If you say YES, we will have them send it; if you say NO, we will not have them send it. It is not a hypothetical question to determine someone's opinion about what ought to be done; it is a real question about what will be done.

2) All we can draw from the data collected is that 200 churches responded NO, and the other 4,000 responded YES, either actively or passively. We do not know whether opinions of WMU NC influenced those responses – because we did not ask. There are a number of reasons churches may or may not want to receive offering materials that have little or nothing to do with their opinions of WMU NC.
For example:
The NO Answers
a. They may just want to stop getting materials, period. Mail from charities, etc. that send letters and envelopes requesting money is often considered junk mail.
b. There are a number of churches upset with the SBC and/or BSC for one reason or another who don’t want to support them or their programs.
c. The churches may know they’re not going to promote it for whatever reason or that they are going to promote it in their own way, and they don’t want the mail and/or don’t want the money to be wasted on sending them things they’re not going to use. Some churches include the offerings in their budgets rather than having promotions during the year.
The YES Answers
a. There may be churches who dislike WMU NC and/or national WMU but choose to receive the materials from them anyway because they care about the SBC/BSC/IMB/NAMB, etc. too much to let any feelings toward WMU or WMU NC prevent them from supporting those entities as fully as they are able, which, in my opinion, is commendable.
b. They may choose to receive materials from WMU NC because they want to promote the offerings and don't have any feelings one way or another about the distribution.
c. They may choose to receive the materials because they didn't feel like responding.

I believe I have addressed my two points sufficiently. I hope that those who read the articles on the websites and in the BR will not attempt to draw conclusions from the data that the data cannot provide.

posted Friday, November 20, 2009 8:39 AM | Report Abuse

Gene Scarborough

Figures can lie--and liars can figure!!!!

posted Friday, November 20, 2009 9:17 PM | Report Abuse

The above is directed to the NCBSC and NOT the WMU-NC so I want to be perfectly clear!

posted Friday, November 20, 2009 9:18 PM | Report Abuse

I want to say that I, personally, did not say what I said to suggest anyone is being intentionally misleading. I recognize I cannot know that based on the only information I have (which, admittedly, is limited), and I hope I did not come across as though I were judging motives. I do not wish to stir up dissension. I actually was motivated to say something because I believed the misunderstanding needed to be straightened out and was creating unnecessary tension, and I hoped to curb it some if I could. I believe if the information is understood clearly, it should not be ruffling feathers.

I know it is easy enough to look at statistics and infer things from them casually without thinking about what the numbers really entail, so I can understand that there may be some who have misunderstood. I don't hold that against them. I can understand someone misunderstanding because I assume it is true that approximately 200 churches responded NO and approximately 800 responded total. Given that, if it were a survey of a random sample of 800, it would be appropriate to conclude the number was representative. But, like I said, it was not a survey and was not addressed to a sample. And, again, if it were to assess public opinion, it should've been done differently. That's all.

I certainly would object to someone knowing better and using the numbers to mislead people, actively or passively (I say passively because sometimes people will remain silent when it suits them to allow people to believe things even though they know they aren't true), but I am not making judgments about whether people actually are being deliberately misleading or not. I am not in a position to determine others' motivation. God knows. It is His business to judge that, and He will.

I just want to help us think clearly about what is said and not make judgments that we shouldn't and that are harmful and divisive. We should seek truth. And, perhaps, we can learn from this situation that we shouldn’t bring up things that are likely to be misunderstood and cause tension if they are not important information (and if they are important and need to be brought up, we should make diligent efforts to eliminate confusion and tension). I don’t think the statistics in this case were important/relevant for the general public to hear, and I don't understand why they were included in the report.

posted Sunday, November 22, 2009 5:45 AM | Report Abuse

James Howard

It is amazing to me that someone can take a 95% positive response (by definition of the survey), translate it into a 75% positive response, then report the findings in a manner that implies 25% percent of NC Baptists Churches don't like WMU-NC or WMU-National. Try that survey again, but this time substitute BSC-NC for WMU; see what kind of response you get. Then explain those findings. I suspect you will give greater voice to the larger number...if it is in your favor. I certainly hope NC Baptist churches want to continue using WMU offering promotional materials. If they do not, the wheels will come off the special offerings wagon. WMU, not the Southern Baptist Convention, owns the rights to promote Lottie Moon and Annie Armstrong offerings...IMB and NAMB can use those names only through legal licensing agreements. The new "Women's Ministry" section can promote those offerings only by permission of WMU. Wow, how efficient is that? Thank God, for WMU and strong WMU leaders.

posted Sunday, November 22, 2009 11:45 AM | Report Abuse

Roy L. Vestal

Seems to me that this is just the kind of report which can cause dissension. Either whoever designed the survey should not have given the choice to not reply if you were satisfied with the WMU being the distributor, the reporter should have reported the number of non replys, and/or the report should not have been published. Even a rookie statistician would know that the report as presented was faulty. We can do better than this and our people deserve better.

posted Tuesday, December 01, 2009 8:49 PM | Report Abuse

Distribution through WMU

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